Faces of the Congo
Gemena, 2016
Gemena, 2016
This paper examines the effect of conflict on internal migration. We uncover the mechanisms through which the presence of non-state armed actors cause migration: direct exposure to violence, uncertainty and fear, and the non-state armed actor exercise of control over the community. We use panel data for households in Colombia before and after migration and exploit the variation in the incidence of community violence and control of non-state armed actors within municipalities. The results show that households are willing to trade reductions in per capita consumption for improvements in security conditions. Direct victims of violence migrate to urban areas, while individuals living in communities with high control of armed groups are less likely to migrate within their municipalities. Stayers are presumably better able to cope with conflict induced risks by negotiating their daily lives with armed actors, adjusting their behavior to abide by the rules they impose, changing their economic behavior, or forming alliances in exchange for protection and economic and political benefits.
Examining Forced Displacement beyond Violence: The Effect of Violence and Control of Armed Actors in Colombia. With Ana María Arjona, Juan Camilo Cárdenas, Ana María Ibáñez, and Patricia Justino. December 2015.
This paper examines the effect of conflict on internal migration. We uncover the mechanisms through which the presence of non-state armed actors cause migration: direct exposure to violence, uncertainty and fear, and the non-state armed actor exercise of control over the community. We use panel data for households in Colombia before and after migration and exploit the variation in the incidence of community violence and control of non-state armed actors within municipalities. The results show that households are willing to trade reductions in per capita consumption for improvements in security conditions. Direct victims of violence migrate to urban areas, while individuals living in communities with high control of armed groups are less likely to migrate within their municipalities. Stayers are presumably better able to cope with conflict induced risks by negotiating their daily lives with armed actors, adjusting their behavior to abide by the rules they impose, changing their economic behavior, or forming alliances in exchange for protection and economic and political benefits.
Take a look in: migration-and-conflict-20151103
Is Migration Welfare-Enhancing? The Impacts of Economic and Forced Migration amid Conflict. From a Working Paper with Ana María Ibáñez. Presented at the RIMISP International Conference of Territorial Inequality and Development in Puebla, México (http://territorialconference2016.rimisp.org/). January 2016.
Abstract
Findings on the economic literature show migration is an effective strategy to increase welfare and reduce economic risk. However, conflict might limit the welfare-enhancing effects of migration. In war periods, people migrate for preventing victimization, to mitigate the declining economic conditions caused by conflict, or after aggressions by armed groups. In fact, households are willing to trade reductions in income for improved security conditions after migration. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of migration in Colombia for economic and forced migrants. Colombia has one of the largest migration rates in the world and the second highest number of internally displaced persons worldwide. We use longitudinal data for 4,500 households to track rural migrants before and after migration. The results show exposure to direct violence causes migration to urban areas and migration to rural areas of households with more valuable lands, while the control of non-state armed actors prompts households to migrate to rural areas. Based on estimations that control for initial household fixed effects, we find migration to urban areas increases consumption per capita by COP$558.503 and migration to rural areas does not have a statistically significant impact on consumption. The paper will also estimate the heterogeneous impact of migration on consumption for exposure to direct violence and control of non-state armed actors before migrating.
¿Qué pasó en las áreas rurales entre 2010 y 2013?: Contribución del acceso a tierras, choques negativos y programas estatales dirigidos al bienestar de los hogares rurales. [What happened in the rural areas between 2010 and 2013? The contribution of access to land, negative shocks, and state programs to rural household welfare]. With Ana María Ibáñez. September 2014.